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Monday, August 25, 2008
Fantasy Is Not That Far From Reality
Posted by
Tuff Stuff
Other than the fact that the weather starts to get a little colder and the number of choices of things to do goes from unlimited to a select few, there truly is no better time than the end of Summer. Hopefully, with a little luck your favorite MLB team is battling for a spot in the postseason and if not, there's always the upcoming NFL season to help drowned your MLB sorrows.
And then there's Fantasy FB and the prospect of who will tear up your league and who will do likewise in the hobby. Ah, speculating. Good clean fun for most of us, but for others who spend there hard-earned cash on "guessing" who will transform from 6th-rd pick into a yearly Pro Bowler participant, guessing is not really an option. Much like anything worth while, you have to invest some time and effort before you can reap the rewards. So my advice to anybody looking to strike it rich in their draft or within hobby circles is to do your homework and simply try to outresearch the rest.
Every year in both the hobby and in Fantasy FB you can quickly tell who's done their homework and who has not. Undoubtedly, there will be someone in every draft that takes the 3rd WR on their hometown team. Not because they feel he's going to have a breakout year, but because he had a good 3rd preseason game against a fourth-string defense and because he's basically one of the only guys he's seen play so far. Sure, checking out your favorite squad during the preseason is a must, but don't bet the farm on anything based on 15 preseason snaps.
Of course, then there's the guys who say they've studied for their draft but really mean they've checked out an "expert's" picks online and have now adopted their views as their own. These are the guys I like the best. They spew out all kinds of info they've retained from watching "experts" on TV or online and jump on a player's bandwagon quicker than Usain Bolt runs the 100. Once they get done rattling off the tidbits of information they've picked up from a crash course of Fantasy FB 101, do what I do, and ask them why they feel the way they do about a particular player. Then sit back and watch as the wheels start to spin, as they stumble to provide any substance before ultimately admitting several "experts" said he had a lot of upside.
While I'll be the first one to admit I haven't tackled the upcoming football season with the time and effort I have in year's past, I'm not going into take the test with nothing other than a No. 2 pencil either. During the course of my "studying," I did manage to come cross a few guys who I think can make a major impact in the NFL and will ultimately become hobby studs as well.
Hot List:
Marques Colston: Should have a huge year with Jeremy Shockey able to stretch the field, second-year WR Robert Meachem back after missing 2007 with and injury and veteran David Patten rounding out a formidable WR corp. Factor in a top-flight QB in Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce in the backfield and there are simply too many weapons on the Saints offense for defenses to double team Colston anymore.
Thomas Jones: The Jets spent a buch of $ in the offseason to upgrade its O-line and the addition of an established QB in Brett Favre will take the pressure off Jones somewhat.
Marion Barber: The Cowboys did draft Felix Jones but make no mistake about it, Barber is a beast and he is easily one of the best backs in teh league and will continue to get the goal line carries which makes him even more valuable.
Santonio Holmes: With Hines Ward getting a little older and coming off a season in which he dealt with some injuries, Holmes emerged as a bonofide No. 1 receiver last season and should only improve on that in 2008.
Ben Roethlisberger: With Ward, Holmes, Heath Miller and a potent attack that will see Willie Parker taking care of business in between the 20s and Rashard Mendenhall becoming this year's Jerome Bettis (goal line specialist) not to mention rookie WR Limas Sweed providing another big target, if the Steelers average O-line can keep him upright, Big Ben should have a monster year.
Roy Williams: Call him a slow learner or blame it on the rotating QBs and offensive coordinators the Lions have turnstyled through the last few years but Williams is due to breakout and live up to his pre-NFL hype and this is the year he does.
Kellen Winslow: If Winslow can stay healthy, he's as talented as any TE in the league. Factor in a strong relationship with QB Derek Anderson and weapons such as Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth and Jamal Lewis around him and Winslow should be a lock for a trip to Hawaii come February.
Brandon Marshall: Love the talent but the Broncos will need to develop a stronger supporting cast of WRs around him or he'll be doubled on virtually every passing situation. If TE Tony Scheffler can step up and provide jay Cutler with another legitimate target and Selvin Young can become an above-average in Denver's zone-blocking scheme, Marshall could be a top-10 WR.
James Hardy: Not usually a big fan of rookie WRs but Buffalo's James Hardy is just too big and too talented to not take a late flyer on. With Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and TE Robert Royal also in the mix Hardy could excel in long-yardage and especially, red-zone situations.
While others on my Hot List include guys like Steven Jackson, Reggie Williams and Chris Perry, I'll toss out my Buster List next time and also include some Sleepers because many of these guys on this list are no-brainers that I simply like more than most.
And while Fantasy success doesn't always translate into increased values in the world of collectibles, nine times out of 10, there's a direct correlation. The key with finding the hobby gems is to jump on a player before he has his breakout year and then sell high before he comes back to Earth or fails to live up to his potential. Knowing when to fold'em and admit a mistake is tough to accept but it's much better than holding onto a player's memorabilia too long and then being stuck with a bunch of Ryan Leaf RCs that are better off after being whipped through your bike spokes.
I have one of my Fantasy Drafts tonight and another next week so get back to me on our Forums and let me know who I should be targeting in the draft and in the hobby.
Thanks
Scott Fragale
Monday, August 25, 2008 6:05:57 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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