Ever since Upper Deck became the first card maker to have a pack of cards selling for more than $1, card makers have been criticized for pricing collectors out of the market. The critics remained when the first $3-a-pack products hit the market in 1993, when the first $5 packs came out shortly after that, and every time the hobby pushed past another price point previously thought to be untouchable.

Today’s new card offerings include more than a dozen brands across all sports that will cost you $100 or more per pack. Mind you, the fact these products exist is for the simple reason that there has been a certain segment of the collecting population that has demonstrated over the years that they are more than willing to fork over that kind of cash in return for a product that is perceived to be of equal value.

The card companies will still be offering a variety of super-premium card products in 2008, but what kind of reception those products will receive is still unclear. With inflation at its highest rate in 17 years, increased concerns about the stability of the nation’s economy and consumer spending on the decline, a growing number of people within the industry, particularly owners of hobby shops, said they’d like to see card companies put more resources into creating and promoting lower-priced card sets during the coming year.

The nature of the card market suggests that even if sales of high-end products were to slow down, there wouldn’t be any noticeable changes in what’s being offered until next year. The card companies plan their product schedules up to a year in advance, and they have to do so with an idea of how each product’s sales will impact their projected annual revenues.

The card makers, especially in baseball, have put a larger focus the past three years on offering a reasonable number of low-priced offerings as a way to attract more kids to the market. There are low-priced products in other sports as well, but the pro-kids marketing message that baseball has invested in requires there to be a variety of low-priced products on hand. Companies in all sports have also spent more resources beefing up their highest-priced offerings as well, because that’s where the best profit margins reside.

While there are a handful of low-priced offerings and a growing number of very high-priced offerings, the so-called “mid-priced” brands seem to have been overlooked. Those products have long been favorites of the collector who wants a little more quality than what’s found in the low-priced offerings but can’t fork over $50 or $100 on a single pack. As the median pack price increases, these collectors are finding less that fits their budgets, and consequently getting frustrated with the hobby.

The hobby can't afford to lose anymore collectors, particularly those who have enjoyed the activity into their adult years. It also doesn't make sense to roll out additional product lines that the bulk of your customer base can't afford.

Economists will eventually declare whether the nation’s economic woes fit the official definition of a recession, but the mere fact the term is being batted around as often as it’s been is enough to suggest things aren’t all that great on Main Street, U.S.A.

Economic slowdowns worry people in a variety of industries, and the sports collectibles business is one such industry. When times are tough, people tend to prioritize their spending. Hobby pursuits such as trading cards tend to get pushed down on the list.

But it might surprise some to recall that the hobby’s so-called “boom years” of the late 1980s and early 1990s took place during a time when the U.S. economy was entering a recession. Card values for vintage material were increasing on a steady basis, new card products and companies were arriving at a rapid rate and investors and speculators couldn’t get into the card market quick enough.

Why did our hobby grow at unprecedented levels when the economy as a whole was performing so poorly? A confluence of several events helped ignite the demand on the consumer level. Throughout the decade of the 1980s, there had been a renewed interest in older baseball cards, particularly those from the 1950s and ’60s. Youngsters from that era had grown up and were looking for items that reminded them of those years. Because so many of their original cards had been lost or survived in poor condition, demand for the remaining cards from that era was rekindled.

Increased demand resulted in an increase in values. As word started to spread around the country that baseball cards were appreciating in value, other collectors came out of the woodwork.

As values for older cards increased, the natural assumption was that modern releases held similar investment potential. As rookie cards of stars like Mickey Mantle or Pete Rose had increased at robust rates, buyers started hoping to hit even bigger rewards by stocking up on hundreds, if not thousands, of rookie cards of other can’t-miss prospects such as Eric Davis, Gregg Jefferies and Jim Abbott.

The news media around the country fueled some of this frenzy with stories that bragged about the return on investment in baseball cards as being far superior to what stocks and bonds were offering. Some dealers even offered to create investment portfolios of cards. Give the dealer $5,000, and he would build a collection of cards that he believed had the best opportunity to appreciate in value over the next few years.

Is a similar boom period in the cards – so to speak – for our hobby if a recession takes hold in 2008? Probably not. After all, the price surges we saw for older material were influenced by a large group of new buyers in the market.

In addition, the cash needed for someone to enter the market at that time was relatively low. Today, most people are well aware of the potential value of cards, and the startup costs of entering as an investor are much higher. Remember, back then you were buying mostly raw cards. Today, most of those same investment quality cards have been slabbed and graded and sell for premium prices.

If you wanted to take your chances on speculating on new cards, the startup costs are also much higher than 15-20 years ago, as are the risks. Only a certain percentage of new releases enjoy noteworthy gains in market value, and it’s harder to buy in the quantities needed to make most speculators happy.

Tough economic times could mean a renewed interest in lower-priced cards and memorabilia, but the same kind of investor-fueled frenzy that sparked the hobby’s boom period isn’t likely to be repeated anytime soon.

Donruss is launching its newest card product this week and many in the trading card industry will be watching its success to see how consumers respond to the product.

Donruss Americana is a product that consists largelly of trading cards of various TV and movie stars ranging from legends such as James Dean and Marilyn Monroe to more current stars such as Cedric the Entertainer. There are some sports figures in the product, but by and large it's a non-sports issue.

The primary selling point of the product are autograph and memorabilia cards from the celebrities. The lineup in this product is quite impressive (for more on the product, click here) and is certain to generate a buzz among celebrity collectors.

This will be an interesting set to watch for a variety of reasons. First, non-sports sets generally target a specific theme, such as a TV show or movie release. The few attempts in the past at a general "bunch of celebrities in a box" type of set have not been very successful. This product, however, has the appeal of some very rare autograph and memorabilia cards that will definitely spark some interest.

This product is also testing new ground from a price perspective – packs will likely sell in the $40 range. That's about 10-15 times higher than most traditional non-sports sets generally run. Donruss has a good reputation when it comes to the value of the items in its packs, but that reputation isn't largely known outside of the sports collecting market.

If Americana is successful, you can expect Donruss and other card companies to offer more products of this kind. Celebrity autographs have become an increasingly popular part of more and more sports products in recent years, and Americana would provide the barometer of whether a product like this can stand on its own.

It would also suggest that collectors are willing to pay a premium price for a non-sports product and open the doors for companies who specialize in those types of properties to offer products that would appeal to collectors who want to focus their efforts on the autograph and memorabilia cards.

Upper Deck is offering a trip for two to this season's Super Bowl in Phoenix as the grand prize in its new “NFL TD Dance Challenge.”
 
Contestants must submit a videotaped representation of their best touchdown dance and subsequent celebration on or before Jan. 11 to http://upperdecksweepstakes.magnify.net/. Entries can be between 30 seconds and two minutes in length and good taste is encouraged. Complete rules are posted on the site, as well.

The company says "use of interesting scenery and unique dialog – 'touchdown rants' – will be additional parts" of the criteria it uses to judge winners. Upper Deck will prescreen each of the video entries as they are uploaded to the site and any that contain inappropriate gestures and/or language will not be posted for public viewing. A group comprised of Upper Deck employees will serve as the judging committee.